New Macro Report Discusses Key Investment-Related Concerns in China
NEW YORK–(BUSINESS WIRE)–
KKR, a leading global investment firm, today released China: Mounting
Macro Paradox, a new macro Insights piece by Henry H. McVey, Head of
Global Macro and Asset Allocation (“GMAA”).
“A recent visit to China gives us more assurance that there is a base
rate of economic growth that the government will – using a variety of
monetary and fiscal tools – work hard to achieve in 2016,” Henry McVey
said. “However, our bigger picture conclusion remains that the Chinese
economy is structurally slowing, driven by disinflation, declining
incremental returns, demographic headwinds, and the law of large
numbers. How these transitions unfold have major implications not only
for China, but also for a global economy that now relies on one country,
China, for more than one-third of total GDP growth.”
In China: Mounting Macro Paradox, Henry McVey discusses the
following short-term and long-term investment conclusions:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.
|
|
|
As it relates to the short term, we are lifting our 2016 GDP
forecast for China to 6.5% from 6.3%. This change represents the
team’s first uptick in forecasted Chinese GDP growth since
arriving at KKR in 2011.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.
|
|
|
Longer‐term, however, we do not think that the recent stimulus can
help the Chinese economy to re‐establish a higher sustained growth
rate.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.
|
|
|
Corporate credit growth remains outsized relative to GDP, which
has implications for – among others – the country’s banks,
insurers, and brokers.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.
|
|
|
There is no “One China” anymore, as the country’s economy is
undergoing a massive transition.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5.
|
|
|
To offset the slowdown in global trade and flows, China is also
repositioning its export economy to take market share in higher
value‐added services.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6.
|
|
|
China Inc.: Coming to a theater near you. Without question, this
trip’s consensus view centered on the desire by many Chinese
business leaders to acquire companies, properties, and experiences
outside of China.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Links to access this note as well as an archive of Henry McVey’s
previous publications follow:
-
To read the latest Insights: click here.
-
To download a PDF version: click here.
-
To download the KKR Insights app on iTunes: click here.
-
For an archive of previous publications of Insights and Thoughts From
the Road: click here.
About Henry McVey
Henry H. McVey (New York) joined KKR in 2011 and is Head of the Global
Macro and Asset Allocation team. Mr. McVey also serves as Chief
Investment Officer for the Firm’s Balance Sheet. Prior to joining KKR,
Mr. McVey was a managing director, lead portfolio manager and head of
global macro and asset allocation at Morgan Stanley Investment
Management (MSIM). Prior to that, he was a portfolio manager at Fortress
Investment Group and chief U.S. investment strategist for Morgan
Stanley. While at Morgan Stanley, Mr. McVey was also a member of the
asset allocation committee, and the top ranked asset management and
brokerage analyst by Institutional Investor for four consecutive years
before becoming the firm’s strategist. He earned his B.A. from the
University of Virginia and an M.B.A. from the Wharton School of the
University of Pennsylvania. Mr. McVey serves as co-chair of the TEAK
Fellowship board of trustees and is a member of the Pritzker Foundation
and Lincoln Center Investment Committees.
About KKR
KKR is a leading global investment firm that manages investments across
multiple asset classes including private equity, energy, infrastructure,
real estate, credit and hedge funds. KKR aims to generate attractive
investment returns by following a patient and disciplined investment
approach, employing world‐class people, and driving growth and value
creation at the asset level. KKR invests its own capital alongside its
partners’ capital and brings opportunities to others through its capital
markets business. References to KKR’s investments may include the
activities of its sponsored funds. For additional information about KKR
& Co. L.P. (NYSE:KKR), please visit KKR’s website at www.kkr.com
and on Twitter @KKR_Co.
The views expressed herein are the personal views of Henry McVey of
KKR, as Head of the Global Macro and Asset Allocation, and
do not necessarily reflect the views of KKR. References to “we”, “us,”
and “our” refer to Mr. McVey and/or KKR’s Global Macro and Asset
Allocation team, as context requires, and not to KKR. This information
is not research and should not be treated as research. It does not
represent valuation judgments with respect to any financial instrument,
issuer, security or sector that may be described or referenced herein
and does not represent a formal or official view of KKR. It is being
provided merely to provide a framework to assist in the implementation
of an investor’s own analysis and an investor’s own views on the topic
discussed herein. There can be no assurance that an investment strategy
will be successful. Historic market trends are not reliable
indicators of actual future market behavior or future performance of any
particular investment which may differ materially, and should not be
relied upon as such. This information should not be viewed
as a current or past recommendation or a solicitation of an offer to buy
or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. References
to a target portfolio and allocations are hypothetical allocation of
assets and not reflect an actual portfolio. The views expressed herein
and discussion of any target portfolio or allocations may not be
reflected in the strategies and products that KKR offers or invests,
including strategies and products to which Mr. McVey provides investment
advice to or on behalf of KKR. It should not be assumed that Mr. McVey
has made or will make investment recommendations in the future that are
consistent with the views expressed herein, or use any or all of the
techniques or methods of analysis described herein in managing client or
proprietary accounts. This release may contain projections or other
forward‐looking statements. Neither KKR nor Mr. McVey assumes any duty
to update such statements.
View source version on businesswire.com: http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20160511005397/en/
Media:
KKR
Kristi Huller, +1 212-230-9722
media@kkr.com
Source: KKR